Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $2,366$ on 2020-06-23
Best fit exponential: \(666 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(54.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,228.7}{1 + 10^{-0.056 (t - 37.8)}}\) (asimptote \(2,228.7\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $107$ on 2020-06-23
Best fit exponential: \(26.3 \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(40.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{105.6}{1 + 10^{-0.045 (t - 36.6)}}\) (asimptote \(105.6\))
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $117$ on 2020-06-23
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $31,332$ on 2020-06-23
Best fit exponential: \(1.12 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(63.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{30,527.0}{1 + 10^{-0.060 (t - 31.4)}}\) (asimptote \(30,527.0\))
Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $1,956$ on 2020-06-23
Best fit exponential: \(548 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(50.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,914.4}{1 + 10^{-0.054 (t - 37.3)}}\) (asimptote \(1,914.4\))
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $376$ on 2020-06-23
Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $238,833$ on 2020-06-23
Best fit exponential: \(6.28 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(54.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{232,321.3}{1 + 10^{-0.039 (t - 43.0)}}\) (asimptote \(232,321.3\))
Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $34,675$ on 2020-06-23
Best fit exponential: \(8.11 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(49.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{33,546.6}{1 + 10^{-0.038 (t - 45.4)}}\) (asimptote \(33,546.6\))
Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $19,573$ on 2020-06-23
Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $2,347,022$ on 2020-06-23
Best fit exponential: \(2.84 \times 10^{5} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(33.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,253,435.4}{1 + 10^{-0.026 (t - 58.7)}}\) (asimptote \(2,253,435.4\))
Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $121,228$ on 2020-06-23
Best fit exponential: \(1.89 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(35.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{116,771.1}{1 + 10^{-0.033 (t - 49.1)}}\) (asimptote \(116,771.1\))
Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $1,578,246$ on 2020-06-23
Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $307,682$ on 2020-06-23
Best fit exponential: \(4.56 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(36.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{298,775.4}{1 + 10^{-0.034 (t - 54.0)}}\) (asimptote \(298,775.4\))
Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $43,011$ on 2020-06-23
Best fit exponential: \(7.9 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(38.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{40,944.7}{1 + 10^{-0.038 (t - 45.2)}}\) (asimptote \(40,944.7\))
Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $263,341$ on 2020-06-23
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $60,837$ on 2020-06-23
Best fit exponential: \(3.9 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(28.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{77,468.8}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 90.5)}}\) (asimptote \(77,468.8\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $5,161$ on 2020-06-23
Best fit exponential: \(774 \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(33.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,008.5}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 49.4)}}\) (asimptote \(5,008.5\))
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $55,676$ on 2020-06-23
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $192,480$ on 2020-06-23
Best fit exponential: \(5.56 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(54.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{181,176.2}{1 + 10^{-0.049 (t - 35.9)}}\) (asimptote \(181,176.2\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $8,914$ on 2020-06-23
Best fit exponential: \(2.26 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(43.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,626.3}{1 + 10^{-0.046 (t - 36.5)}}\) (asimptote \(8,626.3\))
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $7,741$ on 2020-06-23