Please read the README file in this repository.

Other analyses

• Binder sandbox (takes a few minutes to load)
• Croatia-Nordics-And-Some
• Europe
• North_America
• Asia
• South_America
• Africa

Table of Contents

• Cross-country comparison over absolute dates
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis
  • Croatia
  • Switzerland
  • Italy
  • US
  • United Kingdom
  • Sweden
  • Germany
• Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak
  • List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)
  • Chad
  • Estonia
  • Malaysia
  • Cuba

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Croatia⮸

Population $4,105,267$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $2,366$ on 2020-06-23

Best fit exponential: \(666 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(54.5\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,228.7}{1 + 10^{-0.056 (t - 37.8)}}\) (asimptote \(2,228.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $107$ on 2020-06-23

Best fit exponential: \(26.3 \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(40.8\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{105.6}{1 + 10^{-0.045 (t - 36.6)}}\) (asimptote \(105.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $117$ on 2020-06-23

Switzerland⮸

Population $8,654,622$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $31,332$ on 2020-06-23

Best fit exponential: \(1.12 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(63.7\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{30,527.0}{1 + 10^{-0.060 (t - 31.4)}}\) (asimptote \(30,527.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,956$ on 2020-06-23

Best fit exponential: \(548 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(50.4\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,914.4}{1 + 10^{-0.054 (t - 37.3)}}\) (asimptote \(1,914.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $376$ on 2020-06-23

Italy⮸

Population $60,461,826$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $238,833$ on 2020-06-23

Best fit exponential: \(6.28 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(54.0\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{232,321.3}{1 + 10^{-0.039 (t - 43.0)}}\) (asimptote \(232,321.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $34,675$ on 2020-06-23

Best fit exponential: \(8.11 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(49.5\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{33,546.6}{1 + 10^{-0.038 (t - 45.4)}}\) (asimptote \(33,546.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $19,573$ on 2020-06-23

US⮸

Population $331,002,651$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $2,347,022$ on 2020-06-23

Best fit exponential: \(2.84 \times 10^{5} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(33.7\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,253,435.4}{1 + 10^{-0.026 (t - 58.7)}}\) (asimptote \(2,253,435.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $121,228$ on 2020-06-23

Best fit exponential: \(1.89 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(35.0\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{116,771.1}{1 + 10^{-0.033 (t - 49.1)}}\) (asimptote \(116,771.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,578,246$ on 2020-06-23

United Kingdom⮸

Population $67,886,011$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $307,682$ on 2020-06-23

Best fit exponential: \(4.56 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(36.4\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{298,775.4}{1 + 10^{-0.034 (t - 54.0)}}\) (asimptote \(298,775.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $43,011$ on 2020-06-23

Best fit exponential: \(7.9 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(38.4\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{40,944.7}{1 + 10^{-0.038 (t - 45.2)}}\) (asimptote \(40,944.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $263,341$ on 2020-06-23

Sweden⮸

Population $10,099,265$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $60,837$ on 2020-06-23

Best fit exponential: \(3.9 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(28.5\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{77,468.8}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 90.5)}}\) (asimptote \(77,468.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $5,161$ on 2020-06-23

Best fit exponential: \(774 \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(33.8\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,008.5}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 49.4)}}\) (asimptote \(5,008.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $55,676$ on 2020-06-23

Germany⮸

Population $83,783,942$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $192,480$ on 2020-06-23

Best fit exponential: \(5.56 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(54.6\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{181,176.2}{1 + 10^{-0.049 (t - 35.9)}}\) (asimptote \(181,176.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $8,914$ on 2020-06-23

Best fit exponential: \(2.26 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(43.9\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,626.3}{1 + 10^{-0.046 (t - 36.5)}}\) (asimptote \(8,626.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $7,741$ on 2020-06-23

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Chad recovered 93%
Estonia recovered 90%
Malaysia recovered 89%
Cuba recovered 87%
Uganda recovered 82%
Italy recovered 82%
Lithuania recovered 77%
Djibouti recovered 76%
Turkey recovered 72%
Singapore recovered 69%
Hungary recovered 55%
Sri Lanka recovered 54%
Qatar recovered 50%
Portugal recovered 49%
Kuwait recovered 47%
United Arab Emirates recovered 32%
Lebanon recovered 28%
Tajikistan recovered 26%
Paraguay recovered 23%
Belarus recovered 20%
Canada recovered 19%
Mali recovered 11%
Poland recovered 6%
Russia recovered 4%

Chad⮸

Population $16,425,864$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-04-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $860$ on 2020-06-23

Best fit exponential: \(147 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(25.0\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{864.5}{1 + 10^{-0.061 (t - 34.0)}}\) (asimptote \(864.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $74$ on 2020-06-23

Best fit exponential: \(27.4 \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(33.3\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{70.9}{1 + 10^{-0.075 (t - 14.7)}}\) (asimptote \(70.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-04-13 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $29$ on 2020-06-23

Estonia⮸

Population $1,326,535$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,982$ on 2020-06-23

Best fit exponential: \(615 \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(56.8\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,865.0}{1 + 10^{-0.046 (t - 33.2)}}\) (asimptote \(1,865.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-25 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $69$ on 2020-06-23

Best fit exponential: \(25.5 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(52.4\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{67.7}{1 + 10^{-0.044 (t - 24.1)}}\) (asimptote \(67.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $142$ on 2020-06-23

Malaysia⮸

Population $32,365,999$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $8,590$ on 2020-06-23

Best fit exponential: \(2.11 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(49.1\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,122.1}{1 + 10^{-0.030 (t - 40.5)}}\) (asimptote \(8,122.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $121$ on 2020-06-23

Best fit exponential: \(56.8 \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(72.0\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{116.2}{1 + 10^{-0.043 (t - 17.7)}}\) (asimptote \(116.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $283$ on 2020-06-23

Cuba⮸

Population $11,326,616$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $2,318$ on 2020-06-23

Best fit exponential: \(585 \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(42.4\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,174.3}{1 + 10^{-0.039 (t - 33.7)}}\) (asimptote \(2,174.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $85$ on 2020-06-23

Best fit exponential: \(27.3 \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(45.7\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{83.5}{1 + 10^{-0.055 (t - 28.0)}}\) (asimptote \(83.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $110$ on 2020-06-23